Election Will Depend on Strong Support From Social Conservatives
by Daniel T. Zanoza, Executive Director
What I'm about to write may ruffle some feathers within the Republican Party, but I believe somethings need to be said regarding State Senator Bill Brady's Illinois gubernatorial campaign.
Most of us who follow Illinois politics closely understand full well there is a rift between some of those in party leadership and members of the GOP who represent its conservative base. This divide has existed for years and, unfortunately, it has led to the defeat of many Republican candidates--some good, some bad.
Even though I've followed Illinois politics for nearly twenty years, I don't claim to be an expert on how to run a political campaign, but, at times, history is the best indicator regarding what works and what doesn't. Many would have to agree there were those in the Illinois Republican Party who were surprised by Bill Brady's primary victory last February. Indeed, some think those with considerable influence in the Republican Party establishment outsmarted themselves by fielding candidates who split the party vote in the Chicago area which allowed Brady to win the primary because of his strong showing in other regions of the state.
Though it is unfortunate the divide between the Republican old guard and the socially conservative wing of the party exists, to deny this fact would be ridiculous. The crux of the matter is, there are those within the Illinois GOP who believe strong pro-family Republican candidates cannot win general elections in Illinois. Subsequently, some party leaders believe it will not be necessary for Republican statewide candidates to court the party's conservative political base.
This mindset continues--and was possibly reinforced--when Republicans were recently swept into office in other states, demonstrating there is a groundswell of voters who are not content with the direction America is headed. But it seems the impact of grassroots groups, including the Tea Party movement, are being misunderstood or ignored by some in the Republican Party leadership.
The Tea Party movement is not driven by a single issue. Some Tea Partiers now call themselves "Independent", due to the fact they see no difference between the two major parties. Many of these individuals whom I have communicated with believe a vast majority of politicians no longer represent their values or what's in the best interest of their country. They feel Congress isn't listening to them regarding a myriad of issues. Some are opposed to big government and high taxation which has led to the current state of our economy where one out of every ten Americans are unemployed. Others within the Tea Party movement see illegal immigration as an important issue which involves American security and our government's failure to enforce existing laws regarding those who have entered our nation illegally.
Many Illinois voters believe in the Republican Party because of its state and national platforms. Social issues are important to them. They may not all be members of the Tea Party movement, but they have been disillusioned because of the GOP's departure from the values and principles they were elected to office to uphold. It must be noted a significant number of Tea Partiers are Democrats or hold no party affiliation. But a vast majority of those who will decide the outcome of the general election in November are not members of a Tea Party or any other grassroots organization; many care about issues which include the fight for the rights of the innocent unborn, the support for traditional marriage, the preservation of the right to bear arms and other matters of import to them.
Of course, many are only concerned about fiscal issues. For example, just a generation ago, one wage earner could support an entire family. Certainly this is no longer the case, in most circumstances, due to the explosion of big government and higher taxation which has led to the devolution of American society.
Getting back to history, Peter Fitzgerald was the last Republican candidate to achieve a statewide victory for a major office when he defeated incumbent Carol Moseley-Braun for the U.S. Senate in 1998. Bill Brady and Peter Fitzgerald's legislative records were similar. Fitzgerald ran unabashedly as a pro-family conservative. He did not soften or downplay his position concerning a socially conservative agenda and, subsequently, Fitzgerald was the recipient of unified support from the GOP's political base. Fitzgerald won the primary and general election, despite the fact he received little support from the Illinois Republican Party. Fitzgerald spent a great deal of his own personal wealth in his campaign, but he did win.
Recently, many members of the mainstream media have suggested Sen. Brady needs to run a campaign of "moderation". But this advice is coming from those in the establishment press who would rather see Pat Quinn remain in the Governor's mansion after the election. There are also members of the Republican Party who, undoubtedly, are advising Brady to stay away from contentious social issues.
Though there is a strong possibility Republicans will be swept into office because of the negative reactions on the national level to the Democratic-dominated Congress which, despite public outcry, supported unfettered spending, bail-outs and passed an unpopular health care bill, the upcoming election in Illinois is not a fait accompli. I believe it will take a concerted effort from voters--which include the GOP's conservative base--for Brady to win in November. I also feel it will take an energized Republican electorate who believe Brady's legislative record is not enough for him to beat Quinn. Sadly, many Illinois voters are not familiar with Brady's voting record in the Illinois Senate. I believe Brady should embrace his legislative record. Certainly, the media will pick and choose what they like about Brady and what they don't like. My point is: Why let others define who you are and what you stand for?
I'm writing this piece because I have heard rumblings from pro-family leaders and activists that Brady plans to run away from his record. Of course, it's far too early in the campaign to make such a judgment. But I know there are those who would like the State Senator from Bloomington to do so.
I might be the victim of "kill the messenger" with these words. Personally, I will do everything I can to help Brady become the next Governor of Illinois. I know of his personal and political conviction regarding the issues I, as a social conservative, care deeply about. In the same breath, Illinois voters who do not follow politics closely must not be presented with an image of a politician who is defined by the media.
Pat Quinn will be a formidable challenger, especially in a state dominated by the Daley Democratic Machine. Brady's election will not be a walk-through, as I feel some in Republican leadership believe. In fact, one influential pro-family leader told me there are those within the GOP who think Brady can win without the party's pro-family base, due to the results of recent elections in Virginia, Massachusetts and New Jersey. If this is proven to be the case, and Brady buys into this strategy, it might be a formula for disaster for Brady. However, Brady has a reputation for being his own man. He ran a fiscally responsible primary campaign and I fully expect him to be a candidate of integrity and conviction. The Bloomington Senator has done nothing to show me otherwise.
In a way, the November gubernatorial race will be a type of referendum on Illinois politics for the future. Some experts claim the current political situation in America is an anomaly. Subsequently, there are those who stand by the notion Republicans will be swept into office, simply because they are Republicans. Of course, I could be wrong.
Illinois voters are looking to vote for candidates who stand FOR something. Barack Obama stood for "hope and change", but it was a type of change many Americans now find distasteful.
My support for Bill Brady is because of what he stood for (and why) while in the Illinois Senate. I will vote for Brady because he's the best man for the job to lead Illinois. But the challenge ahead for Republicans--moderate and conservative alike--will depend on a unified effort with everyone rowing in the same direction. Hopefully, Brady will energize those who represent the pro-family base of the GOP and not take their vote for granted. I don't think he will, but only time will tell.
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I would hope Brady would also stand up for tax payers and gun owners...
Posted by: Charlie | May 14, 2010 at 12:56 PM
Maybe he should take some lesson in conservatism from Chris Christy
Posted by: Diane | May 14, 2010 at 06:57 PM